Metadata
- Author: Julia Rohrer
- Full Title:: Why You Are Not Allowed to Say That Your 95% Confidence Interval Contains the True Parameter With a Probability of 95%
- Category:: 🗞️Articles
- URL:: https://news.dataelixir.com/t/t-l-sidkrg-yuuitdetk-h/
- Finished date:: 2024-12-11
Highlights
A shibboleth is a custom, such as a choice of phrasing, that distinguishes one group of people from another. The term goes back to the Hebrew Bible, in which the inhabitants of Gilead identify members of the tribe of Ephraim by the way they pronounce the word “shibboleth” (Hebrew for the part of the plant containing grain, or flood/torrent). Those who are identified as such are promptly killed. (View Highlight)
You draw an infinite number of samples, calculate the confidence interval for a parameter of interest, count the relative frequency of confidence intervals that actually do contain the parameter of interest, and end up with 95%. The 95% thus refers to a property of the whole procedure of calculating a confidence interval, and to a (hypothetical) endless string of confidence intervals. (View Highlight)