Metadata
- Author: Learn More
- Full Title:: Product Market Fit Collapse: Why Your Company Could Be Next
- Category:: 🗞️Articles
- URL:: https://www.reforge.com/blog/product-market-fit-collapse
- Read date:: 2025-03-25
Highlights
(• In the earliest days of a product it does not have product market fit. That is represented by the blue line below the brown line. • As it gets closer to product market fit, company performance increases and crosses the PMF threshold. • But that PMF threshold is not flat. It continues to increases because over time consumer expectations are constantly growing. (View Highlight)
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(Customer expectations aren’t rising at a predictable, linear pace over longer periods of time—they are spiking exponentially. Suddenly, “good enough” solutions look obsolete when users realize they can receive more efficient, hyper-personalized, and near-instant responses from AI-driven platforms. This creates Product Market Fit Collapse. This accelerated pace means that once AI proves its value for a given use case, incumbent solutions risk losing their PMF almost “overnight.” There is no lengthy adjustment period to prepare for changing market conditions. There is no time to wait for conclusive data or for long-term strategic planning. The window for adaptation slams shut before they even recognize the severity of the threat. (View Highlight)
Example: Shutterstock + Getty The (Coming Soon?) Collapse (View Highlight)
Both Shutterstock and Getty’s growth models rely on contributors contributing content, which attract more paying customers, which is then shared with the contributors. If the money flow stops, contributors start contributing less, and the flywheel reverses. (View Highlight)
They are dealing with their core growth loop breaking and not owning the new touch point of user habit (design tools) at the same time. (View Highlight)
- How directly do you own the customer relationship? (View Highlight)
Product market fit will be easier to maintain and defend the more you own the customer relationship. (View Highlight)
- What is the frequency of your use case? (View Highlight)
High-frequency products have an established habit with users and habits can be hard to break even if there is a better alternative on the market. (View Highlight)
- Do you own the creation workflow? (View Highlight)
If your product sits “downstream” or outside of these creation surfaces rather than being the place where users do the core work, you’re more easily replaced. (View Highlight)
5. What would break your core growth loop? (View Highlight)
You need to understand your growth model deeply. Don’t just map your growth loops, but understand why a user takes each step in their growth loop. If that “why” breaks then loops start to spin in a negative vs positive direction. (View Highlight)